Race Prediction - South Huron Trail 8K

I can tell it's the summer because I am a little out of practice with this. :) It's busy in the spring and fall, but slow in the winter and summer. I have two races scheduled for this month - the South Huron Trail 8K tomorrow and the Ingersoll Harvest Run 10K at the end of the month (with fellow DMer Lyndsey! - woo hoo!).

Now for my rough notes on tomorrow's race ...

In an ideal world, not considering outside factors:

Pace 6:30/km = 52 minutes

Why this isn't realistic:

1. I have been running long, easy runs during Phase I: Road Work of my training program. I have just started my slow build-up to speed workouts with striders in recent weeks. My endurance and distance has much improved, but I don't have my speedier legs yet.

2. Tomorrow's weather prediction is hot, humid and rainy. I don't run well in the heat and humidity. I am nervous about being on a trail with rain.

3. This is a hilly trail race. I don't run as fast on trails or on hillier terrain.

4. Last year, I ran this event slower than my 8K at Go the Distance. I was hoping at that time to PR, but learned through experience that the more challenging terrain did not set me up for a PR.

Factors working in my favour:

1. I have tapered my runs this week because I needed a Recovery Week after Weeks #1-#7 of Road Work mileage build-up without a break. I am more rested than if I had stuck to the plan of running over 22 km this weekend as an LSD - oy! I needed the rest and this bodes well for me for tomorrow.

2. Last year, at my 1st Go the Distance 8K, I tried my best. This past year, I didn't! I PB'ed nevertheless because of my improvement in running, but I ran in that event less than a week after my goal sub-30 5K the weekend before. Therefore, I went into it with my focus on FUN, not PRing. I aimed for sub-55 and succeeded with a 54:46 (which ended up being a PR anyway) on a very hot, sunny evening.

Therefore, after adding, subtracting and multiplying all these factors together, this is what I have come up with:

AIM: Run a consistent pace of 6:45/km = 54 minutes

This is will still be a new PR for me in the 8K.

It's slower than my goal HM pace, but my HM is on flat pavement, not hilly trails.

IF it is not as grossly humid and hot as predicted, and IF the trail is not wet and slick from rain, aim for a 6:40/km pace.