Saturday, August 27, 2011

Race Prediction - Ingersoll Harvest Run 10K

Full disclosure: This post is being edited after I have run my race - LOL! So you can either believe what I have written below, or you can accuse of me of fudging! :0

The reason I am still posting this after the fact is because I had it in my head (I was thinking about it), but I didn't have the time to post it. I also like keeping a log of my race predictions. They provide me with an indication of how I am feeling before a race, what my attitude 'was' before going into it, and it's also a good test to see how in tune I am with my predicted and/or desired performance. For example, in my last race prediction post, I aimed for 54:00 minutes in my South Huron Trail Run 8K. I ran 54:23. Pretty darn good! I consider this a success because it was within the range that I set. I know there are a lot of runners who would agonize over this 23 seconds ... and truthfully, maybe I would, too, if it were my Niagara Falls Half Marathon goal time that I missed by a hair ... but when it's a small community run with 'loosey goosey' starts (as in, it isn't chip-timed or there isn't a chip-timer mat at the starting line), one just has to go with the flow and still enjoy it for what it is.

And before I share my race prediction for this race, I am going to quote from a post I read on the DailyMile from one of my DM friends ... when he posted this comment, it was an "aha" moment and it still resonates with me:

"Paradoxically, once I started looking at races as
"just entertainment" (as contrasted to my daily runs,
which I view as my "real" running), I started doing better in them.
Go figure. :)"

So what am I predicting for tomorrow? I have no clue! My last two runs were crappy and I am not caught up on sleep so the odds are that this race probably won't be a stellar one for me. I don't think it is smart of me to aim for a PR so I won't.

My #1 goal is to meet in person two friends (Lyndsey and Lauren) from the DailyMile. If one of them wants to run with me, I would rather do this than anything else. :) However, if I end up running on my own, then my secondary goal will be an attempt to run at a 6:30/km pace - this is my NFIM goal pace and I want to practice running it as much as possible so I have a firm grasp/feel of it for goal race day. I will end up PRing in a 10K race if I am able to do this for the race duration so I am prepared to adjust this to 6:45/km again if this race ends up feeling similar to my two previous crappy runs. :(

1 comment:

  1. I hope all goes well and you have a lot of fun! :)

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