Race Prediction - Really Chilly Road Race 10K

Tomorrow I am running in the Really Chilly Road Race 10K, the first of six races in the London Honda Series for 2012. I ran in the 5K event last year. I am very pleased about being able to run in this year's 10K. :) It is a new milestone - running my first 10K race in February. :) Last year, my first 10K was in May.

Truth be told, I am not sure what to predict for tomorrow. It's for fun, not a PR. If anything, I am curious as to how it unfolds because it is my first race running with a revised form/foot strike. :) I fell that tomorrow will set the bar for me to progress from for the rest of 2012.

I'll say this for 'post'erity sake ... any pace in the 6-min/km zone would please me. I am expecting a 6:50-ish, but would be even happier with a 6:45-ish.

Race Prediction - Festival City Run 10K

Here we go again. :)

My race prediction for tomorrow should be 'predictable' because I outlined earlier this week in another post as to what I should be doing in order to make up for my speed workout.

Scheduled speed workout for Friday:

3 X 2 miles @21:22.

Using the pace calculator from Cool Running, this is works out to be a 6:38/km pace, and when the distance is changed, it means I should be running this 10K in 1:06:23.

My current PR for the 10K was established at the Ingersoll Harvest Run - 1:06:04.

My actual goal, factoring in all of this? 1:05:00

"5" is my favourite number so seeing it for the first time in a 10K race would be awesome. :) And aiming for a pace of 6:30/km is an easier number than 6:38. :) I also had very good luck at this race last year, both in fun/scenery and in PRing,

I do have one concern. I still feel slight tightness in my left calf, and it's in the back of my head that it might act up again, the way it did at the Springbank Half Marathon. This is just something I have to deal with mentally and to be prepared for in case it actually manifests physically.

In closing, I promised Suza @More to Life Than This that I would post a cartoon for her in this post. She is organizing a 5 hour run with her room-mates this weekend, weather permitting, complete with a designated 2 mile route and planned snacks! :)

Race Prediction - Springbank Road Races (Half Marathon)

One of my wordiest race prediction posts yet! :)

This is one of those times when I am extremely grateful for having a blog diary recording my training, my ups and downs, my races, etc. Re-reading this post from last year's 5K and re-reading my post from from my spring Run for the Retina 10K has helped me mentally prepare for tomorrow.

My Learning from last year's 5K:

I was not physically able to run a half marathon "well" by this point, but I recall how grateful I was about choosing a larger venue for running my only half marathon of the season. I had already taken several 'ego hits' throughout the summer so I wasn't keen on yet again being all alone at the end of the pack; I needed positive reinforcement, not yet another reminder about the lack of speed in my stride. :( My perception at the time, as I walked home on the opposite side of the path as all the slow'er' half marathoners ran in, was noticing how much mental perseverance was needed because there weren't cheering crowds or spectators, the path was open to the public (which meant the HM racers weren't given priority/a guaranteed clear path at all; if a racer had a slow group of walkers ahead, that runner had to adjust - the walkers had an equal right using the path as the racer), and there was the smaller race factor ... slow'er' runners stood out more and didn't have as large of a pack to run with like the faster runners. :(

But that's okay because this year I'm ready for it. :) I am heading into this run knowing that I am in it alone, and that it probably will be much more of a mental race than a physical one. It also helps that I have been thinking of this half marathon all along as a "training HM" for my Niagara Falls HM (which I am very cautious about saying out loud because I truly don't want to offend anyone who running this HM for a PR or as goal race). A tell-tale sign that I have not 'played up' this HM was Ben's surprise last Saturday when he realized that I was running a half marathon this weekend instead of the 5K. He's feeling a little guilty because he has annual plans for heading north for part of the weekend; therefore, I had to reassure him that this was okay, that I well aware of this scheduling conflict all along (hence my downplaying about it to him). If it really was of huge importance to me (like Niagara Falls or my 5K PR race), he would have known about it much, much earlier than this. :)

But as it turns out, he will be there. He's cancelled his plans and will be there for me so I really shouldn't write that I am in it alone. Jacquie is running in the 5 km and plans to meet me by the dam so she can run up the last hill in the last km to give me last minute encouragement. This support will go a long way. :)

My Learning from this spring's Run for Retina 10K

I intentionally wrote a more positive post than what I was truly feeling - LOL! I really did not enjoy that race at all; it was a huge disappointment to me (the awesome jacket made up for it somewhat). :) I kept mulling over what was so different about this race than all my others when I finally realized that it was the only time when I didn't feel a racing adrenaline; the rapid heart beating and the excited rush that I get every time I am in a race. I came to the conclusion later that perhaps running this race on the exact same paths that I used all the time actually worked 'against' me because it felt like an ordinary run rather than a race, ergo why I couldn't get 'into' it. Although it's nice to know ahead of time what to expect (what I am truly enjoying about running in most of my races a second time this past summer), I am speculating that there is something about the 'newness' of a race that feeds the adrenaline rush as well. We'll see. But in the meantime, I am factoring this into my prediction. The same thing might happen again; there won't be a PR by a large margin if this race ends up feeling like just another training run similar to this 10K race.

(However, looking back through my blog, I didn't taper at all that week; I kept up my training schedule for my sub-30 goal race. Therefore, I need to factor in my "too high expectations under the circumstances" for that race as well.

So where does this leave me?

GOAL #1

To finish the race, and to run it without injury.

GOAL #2

I originally established a goal for this race of 2:25:00. This means a pace of 6:52/km (11:04/mile). I am going to do my best to stick with this, even though recent runs give me confidence that I can do better. Here's why:

Reason One: This time will give me a new PR over my NFIM HM time by 12 minutes. I personally consider this is an excellent, realistic chunk of time to shave off a previous HM PR, and that is all that matters ... what I think!

Reason Two: I want to be able to run this from beginning to end without walking (this excludes any brief walking through a water station if I need to rehydrate). The weather is looking cool and even a little rainy so this makes it easier for to achieve this goal without having heat and humidity to contend with.

Reason Three: My goal is try to run this from beginning to end consistently. There are three options I have mulled over:

• No negative splits; no positive splits - even, concise, I-am-in-total-control splits (6:50/km)
• Breaking the race into 3-even segments: Run the first 7 km at a slower pace (6:55/km); run the second 7 km at a slighter faster pace (6:50); run the final 7 km+ stretch at an even faster pace than the second (6:45/km). This means a time of 2:23:30, before factoring in additional time for a few sluggish kms which may occur along the way, especially after some of the inclines near the end.
• Break the race into 2-segments: the first 10 miles (16 km) @6:50/km and then last 3 miles (5 km+) @6:45/km. This means a time of 2:23:39, before factoring in a few sluggish kms.

These are my options. As most people who race know all too well, it's great to have a plan with the best of intentions, but you just don't know what it is going to be like until you are actually in it doing it. It can be a very bad, "off" day. It can be the greatest of all days. It is somewhat of a crapshoot and there are mental games to work through before reaching the end. I am ready with realistic options that I can use to occupy my mind as I react to how my body's performance.

Reason Four: I made the same error at my half marathon in Niagara Falls last year as I did at my Bayfield 5K PR race earlier in June; I started out much faster than I intended, but because I was feeling so fresh, rested, and strong, I deceived myself into thinking that the faster-than-planned pace was good, that it meant that I was 'actually' capable of running the whole event at this faster speed ... before paying for it dearly near the end and by having a very tough finish. :(

Well, I am not going to do this again tomorrow! I would rather run this race at a slower pace throughout and then, if still feeling energetic at certain key, established points, opt to run at a faster pace. This will be of greater assistance to me when planning for Niagara Falls. I do not want to struggle to get to the finish. I have experienced enough races to know that I would rather finish a race strong and feeling great about how I ran it throughout, as I did about my Forest City 10K in the spring, than to PR in a race that makes me feel out of control and completely like shit at the end (my Bayfield 5K).

But the most important thing about this race is to make me feel more confident about my pending NFIM half marathon five weeks from now. I start Track Workouts later this week, and my original goal pace is 6:30/km. The race tomorrow will let me know if I am on track for this or not.

GOAL #3

Truth be told, there are two people I would like to beat across the finish line. They don't know me, but I know them. I have done a great job of subverting my 'Type A' personality for a number of years, but this doesn't mean the competitive streak doesn't rear its head every once in awhile. :) :)

I'll do my best to get some sort of race report done for tomorrow evening, but it all depends on how pooped I am. :)

Race Prediction - Ingersoll Harvest Run 10K

Full disclosure: This post is being edited after I have run my race - LOL! So you can either believe what I have written below, or you can accuse of me of fudging! :0

The reason I am still posting this after the fact is because I had it in my head (I was thinking about it), but I didn't have the time to post it. I also like keeping a log of my race predictions. They provide me with an indication of how I am feeling before a race, what my attitude 'was' before going into it, and it's also a good test to see how in tune I am with my predicted and/or desired performance. For example, in my last race prediction post, I aimed for 54:00 minutes in my South Huron Trail Run 8K. I ran 54:23. Pretty darn good! I consider this a success because it was within the range that I set. I know there are a lot of runners who would agonize over this 23 seconds ... and truthfully, maybe I would, too, if it were my Niagara Falls Half Marathon goal time that I missed by a hair ... but when it's a small community run with 'loosey goosey' starts (as in, it isn't chip-timed or there isn't a chip-timer mat at the starting line), one just has to go with the flow and still enjoy it for what it is.

And before I share my race prediction for this race, I am going to quote from a post I read on the DailyMile from one of my DM friends ... when he posted this comment, it was an "aha" moment and it still resonates with me:

"Paradoxically, once I started looking at races as

"just entertainment" (as contrasted to my daily runs,

which I view as my "real" running), I started doing better in them.

Go figure. :)"

So what am I predicting for tomorrow? I have no clue! My last two runs were crappy and I am not caught up on sleep so the odds are that this race probably won't be a stellar one for me. I don't think it is smart of me to aim for a PR so I won't.

My #1 goal is to meet in person two friends (Lyndsey and Lauren) from the DailyMile. If one of them wants to run with me, I would rather do this than anything else. :) However, if I end up running on my own, then my secondary goal will be an attempt to run at a 6:30/km pace - this is my NFIM goal pace and I want to practice running it as much as possible so I have a firm grasp/feel of it for goal race day. I will end up PRing in a 10K race if I am able to do this for the race duration so I am prepared to adjust this to 6:45/km again if this race ends up feeling similar to my two previous crappy runs. :(

Race Prediction - South Huron Trail 8K

I can tell it's the summer because I am a little out of practice with this. :) It's busy in the spring and fall, but slow in the winter and summer. I have two races scheduled for this month - the South Huron Trail 8K tomorrow and the Ingersoll Harvest Run 10K at the end of the month (with fellow DMer Lyndsey! - woo hoo!).

Now for my rough notes on tomorrow's race ...

In an ideal world, not considering outside factors:

Pace 6:30/km = 52 minutes

Why this isn't realistic:

1. I have been running long, easy runs during Phase I: Road Work of my training program. I have just started my slow build-up to speed workouts with striders in recent weeks. My endurance and distance has much improved, but I don't have my speedier legs yet.

2. Tomorrow's weather prediction is hot, humid and rainy. I don't run well in the heat and humidity. I am nervous about being on a trail with rain.

3. This is a hilly trail race. I don't run as fast on trails or on hillier terrain.

4. Last year, I ran this event slower than my 8K at Go the Distance. I was hoping at that time to PR, but learned through experience that the more challenging terrain did not set me up for a PR.

Factors working in my favour:

1. I have tapered my runs this week because I needed a Recovery Week after Weeks #1-#7 of Road Work mileage build-up without a break. I am more rested than if I had stuck to the plan of running over 22 km this weekend as an LSD - oy! I needed the rest and this bodes well for me for tomorrow.

2. Last year, at my 1st Go the Distance 8K, I tried my best. This past year, I didn't! I PB'ed nevertheless because of my improvement in running, but I ran in that event less than a week after my goal sub-30 5K the weekend before. Therefore, I went into it with my focus on FUN, not PRing. I aimed for sub-55 and succeeded with a 54:46 (which ended up being a PR anyway) on a very hot, sunny evening.

Therefore, after adding, subtracting and multiplying all these factors together, this is what I have come up with:

AIM: Run a consistent pace of 6:45/km = 54 minutes

This is will still be a new PR for me in the 8K.

It's slower than my goal HM pace, but my HM is on flat pavement, not hilly trails.

IF it is not as grossly humid and hot as predicted, and IF the trail is not wet and slick from rain, aim for a 6:40/km pace.

Race Prediction - Summer Night 5K

It feels like quite a long time since I last did this! :)

Tonight I have another evening run - a 5K. And it will be the fourth time that I run in this race. Very very cool!

As much as I wish I could be typing "SUB-30" as my prediction for this evening, I am a REALIST and I know this is not possible without potentially trying to kill myself! And my training schedule, as lacklustre as it has been this week, is still more important to me than running sub-30. I am simply not a hot weather, evening/after dinner type runner, and I know that this race has a energy-sapping hill after the 4K mark so yes, maybe someday, but this is what I want to accomplish:

1. Sub-33 minutes. I honestly will be happy with a time of 32 and change ...

2. There is another runner within my pace range who usually inches ahead of me in the 5K races in both running series. I watched as she ran past me at the end of the last London race while I was concentrating on pacing/running with another runner. This runner is beating me points-wise, and I likely won't catch up this way, but by golly! At least I can beat her time in a few races for the rest of the season, right? :) :)

Race Prediction - Go the Distance 8K

25 degrees Celsius with humidity is predicted for my race this evening.

Last year's results:

57:47

Pace 7:04/km

Best regular 8K run this year:

56:55

Pace 6:54/km

My pace in my PR 10K:

6:41/km

So I predict this ... I can't help but to PB in this race because my regular 8K runs this year are faster. However, this 8K PR was established in hot, humid weather. It was a tough race then for everyone, and it is looking that way again tonight. :(

I will be happy with a time of 55 minutes (my favourite number doubled) or under. This means a 6:52/km pace. A cross between 6:54 and 6:41, which I think is a little too conservative, but if I am huffing and puffing and completely parched like I was last year, then this is completely realistic!

Race Prediction - Around the Square 10K

I can't post when Blogger.com is down (for two days!). :( And I can't post when my time inbetween runs is fully booked! :(

Sorry for the lack of posts - I am now two runs behind as I write this! - but I will be catching up on them later and back-dating them.

But, rather than getting any further behind, I can jump in now and take it from here. :) I just wanted to share that, as of this morning, the wind is howling, the rain is coming down in heavy spurts, and it is 11 degrees Celsius. And the funny thing is, I think I prefer this type of weather for running over sticky, hot and humid! Ha!

I am not expecting to PR today NOR am I am aiming to PR. I have been very physically active over the last few days so my body is a little on the tired side. I am running this race in Goderich for FUN! I love the Runpikers Series and I am excited that it begins earlier this year so fun it is today!

I will say this ... I would like to see my pace in the 6:40-ish zone, but if I am feeling the after-effect of my week while running, an average pace under 7:00 min. will suffice!

Race post later in the day. :)

Race Prediction - Forest City Road Race 10K

Goal #1

I ran the Gold's Gym 5K race last year. I set a goal for myself that day ...

... To run in the 10K event in 2011 and in the half marathon in 2012, completing a trifecta of races at one event. I will accomplish the second of three steps toward this goal later today. :)

Goal #2

... To have no more goals other than Goal #1. :)

By the time I finish today's race, I will have 40K+ under my belt for the week, the first time I have run this much mileage since last November. I am not silly enough to maintain a full training week and then expect to PR in a race at the end of it. This has never been my priority for this particular race. I am running with a, "it is what it is" attitude. No pressure.

If anything, I truly enjoyed last weekend's McFarlan Rowlands Downtown 5K race when I felt healthy and strong from start to finish. I anticipate feeling a little tired and waves of sluggishness after all my running this week, but if I complete this race at a steady clip, running "well" from start to finish, this will be good enough for me. :) Today is just for fun and a significant marker of slow and steady improvement from last year.

However, I also have to admit, even after writing the above, I have "6:45" on the brain, as in, I want to try keeping my pace at a steady 6:45/km. I will not be able to maintain this pace on the two hills on the course, but if I am not too feeling too tired/sluggish after this week's workouts, I will likely be 'coaching' myself to keep at this pace just to see how well I do at it for most of the 10K. This is 15 seconds/km slower than what I hoped for, but didn't happen, at my last 10K race. We'll see! :)

Race post later today .....

Race Prediction for Downtown 5K

Today is my rest day so a true quickie post ... for me anyway - LOL! :)

Tomorrow I am running in the MacFarlan Rowlands Downtown 5K. Last year, 549 people (+ 48 DNF) ran in this event ... but I was not one of them. :(

I really wanted to be one of the runners and I clearly recall wanting to be in it the following year {I didn't have a blog at the time to record this desire :) }. This race was the 2nd of 6 races in the London Honda Series, and I felt bummed about my declined running ability over the winter after running my first (and only at the time) 10K run the previous fall. :( Therefore, similar to my feelings about the Really Chilly back in February, I am just happy to be in this race this year ... one of 671 registered runners at press time. :) Goal #1 already accomplished!

So what about a time goal/estimation?

My time in the Really Chilly Road Race 5K in February? 35:40

Goal #2 - beat this time! :) Pace must be sub-7:08/km and I think I can do this in a race, an adrenaline-rush situation.

My time in the Bayfield Safe Harbour 5K in 2010, my best 5K time of the year? 33:54

Goal #3 - beat this time! :) Pace must be sub-6:47/km

We'll see about this one. I may just squeak by this record tomorrow. :) 33-something? :)

My PR in the 5K? Springbank Road Race in 2003 31:32

Pace must be sub-6:19/km to beat this time - I am not making this a goal for tomorrow because I don't think I am quite there yet. However, I am working on beating this time in June when I run a sub-30K in the Bayfield Safe Harbour 5K. :)

A final comment. You might recall that I didn't feel the greatest about my 10K at the Retina Run. I said it was an "okay" race for me. I have thought about it because I didn't understand what was different for me that day than on other race days, but it hit me this week: I did not feel that race adrenaline rush I always get when I participate in these races. It was missing that day for some reason. It felt like a 'regular' with multiple sluggish sections run to me. Was it because I was running on the same path I use most days for my regular runs, therefore there was no "newness" or a "race-esque" feel to it? Or was it just an off day for me? Anyway, a new experience to learn from. :) I hope running downtown contributes to a race adrenaline rush tomorrow to help me achieve sub-33. :)

Training Program Change and Race Prediction

I've been thinking ..... can you smell the wood burning through your screen? :)

Two things on my mind today and here are my conclusions:

#1 - Small Change to My Training Program

My Week #6 essentially has been upended. My striders were a bust on Tuesday, I cancelled the second set today due to exhaustion, and I've tapered my week to accommodate this weekend's Run for Retina 10K. Rather than skip ahead to Week #7 on Monday, I've decided to repeat Week #6. Three weeks worth of six striders twice per week are scheduled for a reason so I am respecting the training program as it was laid out, and will continue to follow it in sequence rather than skipping ahead. For me, I think this is wise.

#2 - Sunday Race Predictions

I usually don't do this ... in fact, this is my first time! :) However, given the circumstances, I think I can do it this time. I have been running my regular 10K runs at a faster pace in recent weeks, a pace equivalent to my 10K race pace from last year. For this reason, I think I can predict a new PR for myself on Sunday. :)

Now, just to clarify, I am just tickled pink that my current running fitness level is such that I can run in a 10K race in April, so this in itself is cause for celebration! :) And regardless of any time, I am pleased about this ... honestly! But having said that, anything under 1:09:00 will make me one happy camper. :) :) I know that I will not run this race in under one hour because my pace is just not there yet. I still have plenty of time ahead of me this summer to become a member of this "club" so I don't have this kind of expectation this weekend. I am guess-timating that my average pace will be within the 6:30/km range, which means a result in the 1:05:00 zone. If this ends up being the case, I will be extremely happy. :)

I am really looking forward to Sunday. I think it is going to fun, running a race on the paths that I use on a weekly basis, only this time surrounded by "a few more" runners than usual!! :) :)