Thursday, April 21, 2011

Race Prediction for Downtown 5K

Today is my rest day so a true quickie post ... for me anyway - LOL! :)

Tomorrow I am running in the MacFarlan Rowlands Downtown 5K. Last year, 549 people (+ 48 DNF) ran in this event ... but I was not one of them. :(

I really wanted to be one of the runners and I clearly recall wanting to be in it the following year {I didn't have a blog at the time to record this desire :) }. This race was the 2nd of 6 races in the London Honda Series, and I felt bummed about my declined running ability over the winter after running my first (and only at the time) 10K run the previous fall. :( Therefore, similar to my feelings about the Really Chilly back in February, I am just happy to be in this race this year ... one of 671 registered runners at press time. :) Goal #1 already accomplished!

So what about a time goal/estimation?

My time in the Really Chilly Road Race 5K in February? 35:40
Goal #2 - beat this time! :) Pace must be sub-7:08/km and I think I can do this in a race, an adrenaline-rush situation.

My time in the Bayfield Safe Harbour 5K in 2010, my best 5K time of the year? 33:54
Goal #3 - beat this time! :) Pace must be sub-6:47/km
We'll see about this one. I may just squeak by this record tomorrow. :) 33-something? :)

My PR in the 5K? Springbank Road Race in 2003 31:32
Pace must be sub-6:19/km to beat this time - I am not making this a goal for tomorrow because I don't think I am quite there yet. However, I am working on beating this time in June when I run a sub-30K in the Bayfield Safe Harbour 5K. :)

A final comment. You might recall that I didn't feel the greatest about my 10K at the Retina Run. I said it was an "okay" race for me. I have thought about it because I didn't understand what was different for me that day than on other race days, but it hit me this week: I did not feel that race adrenaline rush I always get when I participate in these races. It was missing that day for some reason. It felt like a 'regular' with multiple sluggish sections run to me. Was it because I was running on the same path I use most days for my regular runs, therefore there was no "newness" or a "race-esque" feel to it? Or was it just an off day for me? Anyway, a new experience to learn from. :) I hope running downtown contributes to a race adrenaline rush tomorrow to help me achieve sub-33. :)


  1. Guessing your time is usually tough. What are you beating your tempo runs at?

    If you can run 4K in intervals with recovery rest between them, and a cool warm-up and cool down wrapped around them, you can expect something similar for a 5K.

    Do you run the same pace throughout, or do you tire and run slower at the end?

  2. Re: Tempo runs
    I have never done tempo runs. One week from Easter Monday, I start three weeks of strength work using hill repeats and tempo runs so I will learn all about them through experience then! :)

    Re: 4K in intervals
    Good to know! Thanks for taking the time to teach me this. :)

    Re: Pace
    Unless there is a hill, I tend to run the same pace throughout conservatively, saving energy for the end. When I race, I rarely tire and run slower at the end, but have experienced this a couple of times.

    Thanks for taking the time to comment, Andrew!